US-ROK hold 4th NCG meeting.. “North Korea nuclear attack will end the regime” reaffirmed

Author
Janne Pak
Date
2025-01-11 18:16
(1-10-2025)   by: Janne Pak(White House & State Department & Pentagon & Congress Correspondent)

@Abercrombie (left), Acting Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, and ROK Director of the Office of National Defense Policy, Cho Chang-rae (right).

The 4th Nuclear Consultative Group Meeting between South Korea and the US, which had been postponed due to the martial law situation, was held in Washington DC on the 10th (local time). In 2023, South Korea and the US promised to establish the NCG through the 'Washington Declaration' to strengthen deterrence against North Korea using the nuclear umbrella, and since then, they have held three NCG meetings in Seoul and Washington to establish joint guidelines.

비상계엄사태 여파로 그동안 미뤄왔던 한미 양국이 제4차 핵협의 그룹 회의가 10일(현지시간) 워싱턴 DC 에서 개최됐다. 지난 2023년 한미는 '워싱턴 선언'을 통해 NCG를 신설해 핵우산을 활용한 대북 억제력 강화를 약속했고, 이후 서울과 워싱턴을 오가며 3차례 NCG 회의를 거쳐 공동지침을 마련했다.

On this day, the US representative was attended by Acting Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Cara Abercrombie, as well as National Security Council (NSC) defense. foreign affairs. intelligence, and military officials, while the South Korean representative was attended by Ministry of National Defense Defense Policy Office Director Cho Chang-rae, as well as officials of equal standing in the US from the National Security Office, defense, foreign affairs, intelligence, and military.

이날 미국측 대표로는 카라 아베크롬비(Cara Abercrombie) 미 국방부 정책부차관대행을 비롯 국가안보회의(NSC) 국방,외교,정보,군사 관계자와 한국측 대표로는 조창래 국방부 국방정책실장을 비롯 국가안보실, 국방,외교,정보,군사등 미국과 동등한 위치의 관계자들이 참석했다.

The necessity of the NCG was repeatedly emphasized at this meeting. The US reaffirmed its commitment to 'increasing the regular visibility of US strategic assets' by frequently deploying strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula and actively disclosing them. In addition, they agreed to continue to advance the 'implementation plan for nuclear-conventional integration (CNI) exercises and training.

이번회의에서는 NCG의 필요성이 거듭 강조됐다. 미국은 미 전략자산의 정례적 가시성 증진은 한반도에 전략자산을 자주 전개하고 이를 적극적으로 공개하겠다는 '미 전략자산의 정례적 가시성 증진'에 관한 공약을 재확인했다. 또한 ‘핵·재래식 통합(CNI) 연습과 훈련 시행방안을 지속해서 진전시켜 나가기로 했다.

The two sides discussed “*security and information sharing procedures; nuclear consultation and strategic communication in times of crisis; *establishment of a dedicated secure communications system; *nuclear and strategic planning, nuclear-conventional integration (CNI); *exercises, simulations, and training; and *strategic messaging.”

양측은 “*보안 및 정보공유 절차위기와 유사시 핵 협의 및 전략적 소통 *전용 보안통신 체계 구축 *핵 및 전략기획, 핵·재래식 통합(CNI) *연습·시뮬레이션·훈련 *전략적 메시지 발신 등을 논의했다.

In a joint press statement released after the meeting, they explained, "Over the past year, the NCG has strengthened the alliance's nuclear deterrence and response capabilities through in-depth discussions on various areas of extended deterrence, including information sharing and consultation systems, joint planning, and joint execution." They added, "In particular, they highly evaluated the nuclear and strategic planning achievements, such as the CNI tasks developed jointly by defense elements including the Korea Strategic Command, the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, U.S. Forces Korea Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and U.S. Strategic Command."

회의를 개최한후 발표한 공동언론 성명에서 "NCG는 지난 1년간 정보공유와 협의체계, 공동기획, 공동실행 등 확장억제 각 분야에 대한 심도있는 논의를 통해 동맹의 핵억제 및 대응능력을 강화해왔다"며 "특히 한국 전략사령부, 한미 연합군사령부, 주한미군사령부, 미국 인도태평양사령부, 미국 전략사령부를 포함한 국방 요소가 함께 발전시킨 CNI 과업 등 핵 및 전략기획 성과를 높이 평가했다"고 설명했다.

South Korea and the U.S. "reaffirmed that the NCG will continue to function as a solid foundation for strengthening the integrated extended deterrence between South Korea and the U.S.," they said, warning that "any nuclear attack by North Korea against the U.S. or its allies will be unacceptable and will result in the end of the regime."

한미는 "NCG가 한미 일체형 확장억제 강화를 위한 공고한 토대로서 계속 기능해나갈 것임을 재확인했다"며 "미국 또는 동맹국에 대한 북한의 어떠한 핵 공격도 용납할 수 없으며 정권 종말로 귀결될 것"이라고 경고했다.

Meanwhile, the prevailing view is that the NCG consultative body should continue even if the U.S. administration changes, but experts predict that if North Korea-U.S. negotiations become a reality during Trump's second term, North Korea is likely to demand the abolition of the NCG from the beginning of the negotiations.

한편 미 행정부가 바뀌더라도 NCG 협의체는 이어져야 한다는 것이 지배적인 입장이지만 트럼프 2기에는 북미 협상이 현실화 할 경우 북한은 협상 초기부터 NCG 폐기를 요구할 가능성이 클 것이라고 전문가들은 예상하고 있다.

There are also predictions that the second term of the Trump administration will shift its focus to 'containment of China', so the prevailing view is that we will have to wait and see whether the NCG will continue to exist.

트럼프 행정부 2기에는 '중국 견제'로 방향을 바꿀 것이라는 전망도 나오고 있어 NCG 존속 여부는 더 지켜봐야 한다는 것이 지배적인 입장이다.

The next 5th NCG meeting is scheduled to be held in Seoul, Korea, but the date and time have not yet been determined.

다음 5차 NCG 회의는 한국 서울에서 개최될 예정인데 시기와 날짜는 아직 미정이다.(끝)

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(Janne Pak, White House Correspondent)
A Professional female Journalist who has covered the Korean Peninsula Issues and Korea-U.S. relations for over 20 years, White House, Pentagon, State Department, Congress.
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